Good resistance Relative to RIMM

Rim (RIMM) exhibits relative strength today despite the overall market weakness. Look nine on its big picture ranking at # pattern.

In a relatively short term pattern perspective RIMM bypassed modern key from 8 months to 62 70-63. 30 in early February and followed through its high 70.54 Feb 18. Given that you have specified, RIMM drew approximately 8.5% return right near the top of the prior modern shelf - which is now an important and substantial support.

Put the current withdrawal retest who represent an upside breakout point forward of the emergence of another upleg. RIMM you specified head higher to realize the implied upside potential by huge basic training developed for seven. 2008.

With such powerful underlying motive, it remains to be seen how RIMM behaves in the middle of the otherwise "soft" global market conditions Until today, RIMM impressive exhibits relative strength, while the SPX and NDX continues to weaken broadband highs last week.

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Expected Upside Breakout in BP

Bien_que crude oil is circling unchanged today , BP plc) well accredited acts. The stock continues to carve out a series of depressions above the coast of its recent February upleg rally 48.28 Woodpecker.

The most recent withdrawal 46.90 depressions (22 February) and 47.40 (February 24), followed by rallies in the area 48.20/30, continues a strong upward pressure on the modern plateau of January-February 48 00-48, 30. When put under the present bypassed, mixing renderer on the head towards a genuine retest Jan high next 49.50.

At this time, only a decline that low breeze of 47.40 yesterday will compromise the time of the expecting upside breakout.

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Great Interactive map of China

You are here:Home > collected > economy > great Interactive Map of China pictured above is the map of China in The Economist (interactive version here), showing how economic output of called Chinese provinces compare to the whole country's GDP.  Also, the interactive version allows you to compare GDP per capita, population and export reporting.
HRT: Robert Kuehl and Grabow

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Comment by Jim Wyckoff energy market

ENERGIES: Crude oil for April closed 2 $ $96.02.08
a barrel of today. Price closed near session low today
After hit another top of 2.5 years costs $ 103.41 one
Barrel early today. Today price action has formed a
decline to purchase "tail of exhaustion" on the daily chart at #;
where buying dries interest at a higher level and
Price back way to close the weakest and close the session
low as bulls becomes exhausted. Today price action is a
clues that a short-term market top is in place. However, the
It does y more upside potential if the Middle East
instability degenerates. The next short term upside price
objective of small groups for the bulls produced a close
over vast psychological moderne at $100.00 per barrel.
The next goal in the short term for downside price breakout
crude oil focuses on product sales a bears close below solid
technical support at $94.00. Modern first seen in
$ 97.00 and you've specified to $98. First support is considered to
$96 and that you have specified to $95. Number of the Wyckoff market rating: 7.0.

April heating oil closed 475 points to $ 2.8691
today. Price closed near session today shortly after the
hit another 2.5 years top costs of $ 3.0767 from the beginning.
Today price action has formed a bearish purchase
"exhaustion tail" on the daily chart at #, where buying
interest dries at higher levels and how prices
close down further offshore and near session low as bulls
become exhausted. Today price action is an indication that a
Top market in the short term is in place. Prices are always in one
quarterly monetary on the daily bar chart at #. The
Bulls then upside breakout price objective are closing
price above solid technical modern $3.0000.
Next downside price breakout bears objective is
a close below technical support strong production to the
$ 2.8000. First modern lies at $2.9, and you have specified in
$ 2.9326. First support is seen at $ 2.8500 and that you specified in
$ 2.8000. Number of the Wyckoff market rating: 7.0.

April unleaded gasoline closed 211 points to
$ 2.6938. Price closed near session low after having hit the
another 2.5 years top costs of $ 2.8560 from the beginning. Today
price action has formed a bearish exhaustion of the "for purchase"
tail "on the daily chart at #, where buying dries interests"
places at higher levels and prices retreat means to close '
lower and near the low session that bulls become exhausted.
Today price action is an indication that a short-term market
Top is in place. The next upside breakout price objective
bulls is the price of closing above solid techniques
the modern at today is high of $ 2.8560. Next bear
small groups for downside price objective is price closing below
solid support to $2,5 500. Modern first seen in
$ 2.7324 and you've specified in $ 2.7500. First support is considered to
$ 2.6800 and you've specified in $ 2.6500. Market Rating the Wyckoff number:
7.0.

April natural gas closed today 6.0 cents to $ 3.876.
Price closed near mid-tier and hit other expenses
voluntary low today. Bears have a solid set of-
the overall technical term advantage. The next increase in prices
objective of small groups for the bulls is the price of closing above
solid modern technique at $4.10. The disadvantage of the next
objective of breakout of prices for bears is the closing price
below technical support strong at $3.75. Modern first
You can see in the high $ 3.95 today and you've specified to $4.00.
First support is seen at today s run low of $ 3.822
and you've specified to $3.80. Number of the Wyckoff market rating: 1.0.

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Income GroupOn hits 760 M in 2010. Year of astonishing growth by year

You are here:Home > collected > comments > Groupon income hit $760 M in 2010; Staggering...

I'm an eye on GroupOn them because it most likely will be introducing the hottest IPO of the year.  Society is currently at the stage of the hyper growth such as described in the WSJ; the year over year growth is just simply amazing as our society born in late 2008-continues to amaze.
$760 M is a jaw dropping figure, I'd like to know if the $760 M represents the gross amount of the sold coupons, or group on a receipt: since they keep only half-life of trafficking in the coupon.  Could be said of this story.  But even if it is gross income, growth of $33 M $380 M in a year is amazing.
Daily deals site GroupOn Inc. because revenues surge to $ 760 million last year to $ 33 million the previous year, with more than one third of its sales from outside the United States 2010, according to a note internal.  The email from Mason, Andrew Groupon CEO members of staff at the beginning of January, also reveals big ambitions of the founder of the company, which began three years ago. Mr. Mason writes he hopes to achieve "the billion of revenue in 2011." GroupOn is one of the few companies of the Internet, including of Facebook Inc., Twitter and LinkedIn Corp., who took lament for private placements or an IPO investors. Rush has fuelled an outbreak of the assessments of these private companies.The Chicago-based company spurned a takeover bid of 6 billion Google Inc. in December and then to collect 950 million in funding from investors private at the beginning of this year. He is preparing for an initial public offering later this year that could raise $ 1 billion said people familiar with the matter.Regroup on had more than 4,000 employees and extended its activities to 565 cities at the end of 2010, up to approximately 120 employees and 30 cities in 2009, according to the memo. Some growth was driven by the acquisition of rivals in Europe and Asia. Overseas activity represented about 285 million in revenues last year and nearly three-quarters of its employees. Mr. Mason said his staff to beware of complacency, warning that "hit" clones and tech companies big commit resources to withdraw from the market share of Groupon. "If you feel a bit like Frodo climbing Mount Doom, you cannot be held responsible for," he wrote, a reference to the protagonist of the rings. "The company is mainly known for offering coupons to local merchants, online is also generate sales of national retailers. In accordance with the memorandum, "national deals" accounted for 12% of revenue in the fourth quarter of 2010. GroupOn has now 51 million subscribers to the email, it sends to promote deals and hopes to increase this triple, to $ 150 million, at the end of this year. The company also hopes to generate more revenues than does ' t rely on this explosion of email. The memorandum, Mr. Mason wrote that he hoped, "at least 1 billion dollars in revenue from new products we will launch in 2011, not just the current daily e-mail."

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Jim Wyckoffs Morning BlogFriday

Friday morning February Web 25-Jim Wyckoff Log

* MARKET - FROM JIM DAY *.

Thursday market price action still sector
leader crude oil was critical. Price gross April
the session in camera of low after having struck a new
2. the high 5-year-old $103.41 per barrel at the beginning.
Thursday price action formed a bearish purchase
"exhaustion tail" on the daily chart at the #, whereby
buying interest dried up to higher levels and
average price retracted to close down and close the
session low as bulls becomes exhausted. Thursday
the share price is an indication that a short-term market top
is in place for crude oil. If crude oil is indeed
Place in a top market you've specified that it is also probably look
still on the market have made same.--Jim

IMPLEMENTATIONS OF STOCKS

S & P 500 communities: short-term moving averages
are neutral today. 4-
Moving average day is less than 9 - and 18 days.
9 Days are above the moving average of 18 days.
Short-term oscillators are
neutral today at the beginning. Today, most short-term technical
modern comes to 1,320.50 and you've specified for this
s week high of $1,334.30. Buy cases likely to reside
just above these levels. Support of inconvenience for
active traders today is located in the night
1,301.70 soon and that you have specified at the bottom of this week of
1,293.00 Sell stops are likely located just below
These levels. Rating market Intra-day number of Wyckoff:
5.5

NASDAQ stock index future: moving more short-term
averages are neutral today.
4-Day mobile average is less than 9 - and 18 days
day. 9-Day average is over 18 days. Short
the term oscillators are
s bullish today. Short-term technical
the modern is located at 2,334.75 and that you specified in
2,350.00 Buy likely fair resident above judgments of those
levels. The downside, short-term support is considered
at 23.00 2,315 and that you specified in the 2,300.00. Sell stops are
probably located just below these levels. The Wyckoff
Number intra-day market Rating: 6.0

Dow future: stop selling capable of lies just below
12,050 support and you have specified more stops just below
support for 12 000. Buy cases likely just resident
over 12,185 modern technology and that you specified in
12,200. Short-term moving averages are neutral
Today is at the beginning like 4 days below moving average
9 days. 9-Day mobile average is above the
moving average of 18 days. More short-term oscillators
are bearish today.
The Wyckoff Intra-day market Rating number: 6.0

HE U.S. BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: moving averages over short-term
are now bullish at the beginning. 4 Days
the moving average is above 9 - and 18 days. The
nine days is above the moving average of 18 days.
Oscillators are bearish
Today, at the beginning. Modern short-term lies at the
121 high night 17/32 and you've specified for this week
high of 121 28/32. Buy cases likely just resident
over these levels. Technical support more short-term
sur lies low 120 Thursday 26/32 and you have specified at 120
16/32. Sell cases likely resident just below those
levels. The Wyckoff Intra-day market Rating number: 4.0
March to the United States T-bonds

134 4/32 - lifetime high
moving average of 124 4/32-100 - day
122 14/32-the second pivot point modern
Months back-122 5 / 32 high s
121 29/32-the first modern pivot point
days 121 28/32-previous high
days 121 13/32-previous close
121 12/32-pivot point
120 27/32-the first point support pivot
day 120 26/32-previous low
120 18/32-4 - day moving average
120 10/32-the second pivot point support
119 21/32-9 - day moving average
months back-119 8 / 32s low
119 6/32-18 days moving average
116 32/26-life low

March U.S. T-Notes: moving averages over short-term
are now bullish at the beginning. 4 Days
the moving average is above 9 - and 18 days. The
nine days is above the moving average of 18 days.
Oscillators are neutral
Today, at the beginning. Modern short-term lies at the
top 120.02.5 night and you've specified for this week
Top of 120.11.5. Buy cases likely just resident
over these levels. Technical support more short-term
lies in 119.24.0 and that you have specified in the 119.16.0. Sell stops
resident likely just below of these levels. The Wyckoff
Number intra-day market Rating: 4.5

March United States T-Notes.

127-7/32 - lifetime high
moving average of 122 9/32-100 - day
previous-121 months 15/32 high s
120 19/32-the second pivot point modern
day 120 11/32-previous high
120 8/32 - the first modern pivot point
120 1/32 - pivot point
119 30/32-eve s. close
day 119 25/32-previous low
119 23/32-4 - day moving average
119 22/32-the first point support pivot
119 15/32-the second pivot point support
119 5/32-18 days moving average
moving average of 119 5/32-9 - day
months back-119 4 / 32s low
109 25/32-life low

US DOLLAR INDEX.

March U.S. dollar index is firmer in early
Commerce today on a short-covering tepid rebound.
Price hit a fresh low night nearly four months.
Bears have still some momentum technical disadvantage.
Slow stochastics are bearish dollar index
Today, at the beginning. The dollar index is shorter term
modern technology to high 77.52 s Thursday
and that you specified in the 77.74. Support short-term is considered to
76.97 low night and that you specified in the 76.75.
Number of Intra day market the Wyckoff rating: 5.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly higher in early
trade today following a volatile trade day
On Thursday. In April, crude, look to buy stops to
reside just above the $98 modern and that you specified in
$99.00. Want to sell stops just below of technique
$97.00 support and that you specified in $96. The Wyckoff
Number intra-day market Rating: 5.0

GRAIN

Prices were firmer in agenda trade agenda. I would
do not be surprised to see sideways and choppy trading
the next few weeks, of the utmost importance
USDA planting intentions report due out in late
March. My bias is that the upside is currently
limited in the grain markets.

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The Return Of The Budget Busters

Now it's getting serious. House Speaker John Boehner warns that he's won't sign off on a short-term spending extension to keep the deficit-laden federal government operating. "Read my lips," he says. "We are going to cut spending." The budget showdown is here.

The current authority for spending runs through March 4. Between now and then, Congress will either cut spending or come up with a temporary measure to keep the government running. Perhaps a bit of both. Barring a workable outcome, however, a shutdown looms.

That's unlikely, but the odds aren't zero either. Let's call it the risk of brinkmanship. The calendar is helping either. As Jaime Dupree notes,

Congress is off next week, so while the House will approve a stop-gap budget (with billions in budget cuts), the Senate won't be back until the week of February 28 to deal with it.

And as of right now, it's not even the first item on the agenda for the 28th.

"The Senate is adjourned until the 28th, at which point we'll take up the...patent bill," tweeted a bemused Don Stewart, spokesman for Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY).

Paul Krugman charges that all the talk about the budget debate is essentially "fraudulent," asserting,

House Republicans talk big about spending cuts but focus solely on that same small budget sliver [nonsecurity discretionary spending].

And by proposing sharp spending cuts right away, Republicans aren't just going where the money isn't, they're also going when the money isn't. Slashing spending while the economy is still deeply depressed is a recipe for slower economic growth, which means lower tax receipts so any deficit reduction from G.O.P. cuts would be at least partly offset by lower revenue.

The whole budget debate, then, is a sham.

Krugman argues that "if you're serious about the deficit, you should be willing to consider closing at least part of this gap with higher taxes." In theory, yes. But that opens the door to the ancient debate about whether we're in this mess because taxes are too low or spending is too high. We're not going to resolve that issue here, but a little perspective never hurts. Here's your fiscal Rorschach test for the day by way of a graph of the historical tax brackets for individuals.

In the end, the government can adjust two levers: revenue and spending. The details are messy, but that's the playing field once the political dust clears. On that note, one more chart to chew on. The annual change in current federal receipts (blue line) vs. current expenditures (red line) in seasonally adjusted terms recently moved into something approximating an encouraging state. Yes, that's a drop in an ocean of deficit projections. But at least there's a hope that if the government can restrain the growth of spending--a massive if--the possibility for some degree of progress in budgetary matters isn't doomed.

No matter what happens, getting the government's fiscal house in order is going to be painful, and the problems of red ink willl be with us for years. The real issue is deciding how to dig ourselves out of this hole without shooting ourselves in the head. Cutting the budget when job growth is weak carries risk, but so too does raising taxes. The numbers suggest that some of both will be necessary to make meaningful progress on the deficit. Everybody knows that. The question is how that reality will reveal itself in actual legislative changes.

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Intrade Contracts on Middle East Prospects

You Are Here: Home > Articles > Economy > Intrade Contracts on Middle East Prospects Intrade now offers contracts for whether the leaders of countries in the Middle East like Bahrain, Yemen, Libya, Iran will still hold those positions by December 31, 2011. Volume is somewhat light for these contracts, but the odds are running between 15-20 percent for these leaders losing their positions this year (see chart above, click to enlarge).

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Intrade Introduces Inflation Futures Contracts

Inflation has been getting lots of attention lately.  For example, do a Google News search for terms like "rising inflation," "inflationary pressures" or "rising food prices" and you'll find almost 3,000 results each.  Interestingly, you'll get about the same number of results for the word "deflation."  
According to the most recent WSJ Economic Forecasting Survey, the consensus of more than 50 economists and analysts is that CPI inflation will be 2.1% in December 2011.  But with all of the talk lately about rising food and commodity prices, there are many guests on CNBC, Bloomberg, and FOX Business News who think the inflationary pressures will push the rate up much higher than 2.1% by the end of the year.  
With all of the incredible divergence of opinions about future inflation, it seemed natural for Intrade to introduce inflation futures contracts, and that's exactly what just happened following my suggestion to them.  Here's the link to the six new futures contracts that allow you to take a position on the U.S. inflation rate in December 2011, based on the 12-month percentage change in the CPI-U.  

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The TOTAL Volume of Trade is Most Important

You Are Here: Home > Articles > Economy > The TOTAL Volume of Trade is Most Important From Cato's Dan Griswold post "Rising Exports and Imports Are Good News for U.S. Economy":
"Politicians and commentators love to focus on the deficit, as though it were a scorecard of who is winning in global trade, but the real measure is the total volume of trade. As economies expand, so does trade, both imports and exports. Exports help us reach new markets and expand economies of scale, while imports bless consumers with lower prices and more choices, while stoking competition, innovation, and efficiency gains among producers.By this measure the BEA's recent trade report for December was good news all around, and one more sign that the U.S. and global economies continue to recover from the Great Recession. Last year, U.S. exports of goods were up 21 percent from 2009, while imports were up 23 percent. In contrast, in the recession year of 2009, exports of goods dropped 18 percent from the year before while imports plunged 26 percent. (Unemployment soared in 2009, but, hey, at least the trade deficit was improving!)"MP: I've made this point before about the importance of adding exports and imports to report total trade, see posts here and here.  As the top chart above illustrates, total trade plummeted by $120 billion due to the global recession from mid-2008 through the summer of 2009, and this was at a time when our monthly trade deficits were "improving," from almost -$70 billion to less than -$30 billion.  Obviously, the declining volume of total trade in 2008-2009 was a much better indicator of the deteriorating economic conditions than the "improving trade deficit."
As Dan points out, when it comes to measuring economic performance of the U.S. economy, the most meaningful and relevant measure is "total trade" and not the relatively meaningless current account "trade deficit" for goods and services (which is exactly offset by a capital account surplus).   It's unfortunate that the total volume of international trade doesn't get more attention.  Thanks for Dan Griswold for making the case. 

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Silver SLV Broke Out Yesterday

You Are Here: Home > Articles > Stock Picks > Silver (SLV) Broke Out Yesterday

While gold has been a bit of a laggard, silver has broken to yearly highs (and I believe all time highs as well - don't quote me).  Look for trend type traders such as myself to pile in here, now that a 'double top breakout' has ensued.
I am using the ETF for charting purposes rather than the metal itself....

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Recovery Rallies in GM, Ford

General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) present very different near-term chart structures, with GM exhibiting a more constructive near term pattern than Ford.  Nonetheless, both names are in different phases of recovery rallies off of their early February lows.

Reviewing the 60-minute comparison chart on both, we see that Ford's Jan double-top at 18.97 and 18.88 ended the upleg off of the June 29 low at 9.75. Ford has come off the Feb 3 low at 15.10 and is flagging in the mid-15 range.

GM is in a bullish triangle formation, having come off the Feb 3 low at 35.13, which ended the correction off the Jan 6 high at 39.48. Our targets are 38 and then 38.60.

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Weekly Review of Stockcharters: Views on the Rally

You Are Here: Home > Articles > Commentary > Weekly Review of Stockcharters: Views on the Rally

Has the 'endless' rally an end? Have the Stockcharters anything to add?
Robert New of TheInformedTrader looks for pullbacks when the RSI hits 70. When such pullbacks do occur they find support when the RSI reaches 50.

But when the rally is strong, RSI's can remain extended for weeks (and months).

The Russell 2000 will soon be at its 2007 highs.

No Index charts from David Colletti, but lovers of stock breakouts will find something of interest in his chart list (StockTradersHQ.com). Grupo Financiero Gallicia (S.A.) is enjoying a very nice consolidation above $14.

Yong Pan of Cobrasmarketview shows most breadth is decidely neutral (and certainly not overboguht or toppish)

Yong's mechanical trading model has struggled on recent dips.

Treasury yields playing off the Symmetrical Triangle breakout; measured move target still a possibility and a test of 40 a likely short term test.

Richard Lehman of The Channelist offers his words of wisdom/caution.

2/19 -- For domestic equities, the bubble grows. Short term trends remain perfectly intact, even after three months with no correction. Small caps are back in their groove and large caps are back at the upper lines of long term channels again with stochastic measures at upper extremes (i.e. overbought). The Fed is taking the entire country for a hot air balloon ride. Can we trust that it knows how to land it?
Elsewhere, China may be getting to the end of its bounce as it approached the upper long term channel line, but gold is back in its up groove and oil (USO) is just starting to bounce.
Around the country, every portfolio manager is loaded to the gills now with equities and trying to get even more in their portfolios before the quarter ends next month. they are all thinking the same thing -- ride the Bernanke wave but make sure they get out before everyone else heads for the exit. Sound like a tenuous situation to you?
2/11 -- Rise in the dollar is keeping gold and oil down but doesn't appear to be able to bring stocks down in the US. Others, however, like China and India are not finished correcting from November.
2/7 -- Large and small caps are both accelerating to the upside on the 5-min charts, but the large caps appear to have hit the upper lines on their hourlies. Stochastics are at upper extremes and volatility is at lows. Its tough to go against this freight train, but technically, US equities are very extended.
Also, USO hit its lower short term line and is bouncing.

Has a chart which shows the Dow at channel resistance (different to my own take)

Michael Eckert of http://elliottwavetrendsandcharts.com offers a narrowing wedge with diverging technicals and a likely measured move EWT finish (of a consolidation - not a trend wave).

A converging coild also playing out on the S&P 60-minute chart (this time a fifth wave top of a trending wave)

Finally, Anthony Allyn of elliottwavehound.com is also pointing to a 60-min top in the S&P, but with a different wave count.

Not much change to what has been said before.

by Declan Fallon (Fallond Stock Picks)

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Entitlement Nation: What Does Government Do Mostly Cut Checks to Beneficiaries, 2.3T in 2010

You Are Here: Home > Articles > Economy > Entitlement Nation: What Does Government Do?... AOL Opinion Editor John Merline asks a great question (via Instapundit with h/t to Pete Friedlander): "What's the biggest single job the federal government undertakes?" and here's his answer:
"National defense? Nope.Transportation? Not even close.Nope, the biggest single thing the federal government does these days is ... cut checks.Lots and lots and lots and lots of checks that go to individual citizens -- $2.3 trillion worth last year alone. In fact, according to a table buried deep inside the little-noticed Historical Tables volume of the White House's 2012 budget, these "direct payments to individuals" accounted for more than two-thirds of federal spending in 2010 (see chart above). That's a post-war high.And that share has been steadily climbing. Payments to individuals accounted for 2.4 percent of all federal spending in 1945. By 1980 it has risen to 47 percent, and in 1992 it crossed the 50 percent mark. (See  chart above.)Where does all this money go? More than half goes to seniors through Social Security and Medicare. Only about 38 percent goes to the poor. And the rest of the payments end up with farmers, students, the unemployed, those looking for retraining help, veterans and other select groups."And the biggest of these direct payment programs -- Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid -- are also the fastest growing in the federal budget."MP:  The chart below displays a breakdown of the $2.3 trillion in payments to individuals in 2010 (from Table 11.3), and shows that more than 68% of payment are for Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid.  
In John's article, he points out that at the same time that payments to individuals are rising, both in absolute terms and a share of total federal outlays, "the federal government increasingly relies on fewer and fewer taxpayers to cover its costs.""When you put these two trends together, what you find is that the federal government has over the years essentially turned into a gigantic wealth-transfer machine -- taking money from a shrinking pool of taxpayers and giving it out to a growing list of favored groups.
Now, depending on your political perspective, you could view this is a good thing or a bad thing.
But whatever your view, this situation will make getting the federal budget under control increasingly difficult, since it will invariably involve pitting those writing checks against those cashing them."

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